With the FIFA 2026 World Cup draw looming on 5 December, 2026, in Washington D.C., sports data experts at Opta have unleashed their supercomputer to simulate the expanded 48-team tournament. Drawing on a wealth of metrics – from recent international form and player statistics to historical head-to-heads and Opta Power Rankings – the model crunches probabilities for every conceivable outcome, assuming a randomised group stage to reflect the pre-draw uncertainty.
For Paraguay, returning to the global stage after a 16-year absence, Opta predicts a 0.4% chance of winning the 2026 World Cup, which will be co-hosted by Mexico, Canada, and the United States.
A slim chance
That may seem a slim chance for The Albirroja, but for comparison, the clear favourite Spain is given just a 17% probability of lifting the trophy by the Opta supercomputer’s pre-draw. They are followed by France (14.1%), England (11.8%), and Argentina (8.7%). Paraguay’s 0.4% ties them with Canada and Ghana, while placing them ahead of nations such as Mohamed Salah’s Egypt (0,3%) and Scotland (0,2%).
The Opta supercomputer’s pre-draw projection gives a fascinating glimpse into potential glory, with European heavyweights dominating the favourites’ list but South American underdogs like Brazil (5,6%), Colombia (2,0%), Uruguay (1,7%), and Ecuador (1,0%) emerging as surprise package contenders for a memorable campaign.
Cutting-edge analytics
Opta’s methodology is a blend of cutting-edge analytics and real-world footballing nuance. It factors in everything from expected goals (xG) and assists, to unbeaten streaks and qualification heroics, cross-referenced against betting market odds for match-by-match win probabilities.
Thousands of simulations are then run to project not just tournament winners, but granular details like group-stage advancements and knockout clashes. For the hosts (USA, Canada, Mexico), the omens are slim, while dark horses such as Norway (2.3%) add intrigue. Yet amid the star-studded predictions, according to Opta, Paraguay could stand out for projected overachievement.
The 2026 World Cup draw
The 2026 World Cup draw is set to take place at the historic John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts in Washington DC at 12:00 ET (14:00 PYT) on Friday, 5 December 2025. The show will be co-hosted by supermodel, producer and Emmy-winning television personality Heidi Klum, comedian and actor Kevin Hart, and actor/producer Danny Ramirez.
“With this tournament coming to the United States, where I was born, and Mexico, where some of my roots lie, it is even more special,” said Ramirez. “I could not be more excited to be part of this show.”
Andrea Bocelli, one of the most acclaimed classical voices in history, will take the stage alongside global superstar Robbie Williams, who will perform with American singer Nicole Scherzinger. Once the draw has concluded, Village People will treat the audience to a performance of Y.M.C.A.
Live coverage of the final draw for the FIFA World Cup 2026 will be available on FIFA.com and the FIFA World Cup social media channels.
