Paraguay’s declining fertility rate is a growing concern for the nation, recently brought into focus by a United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) discussion in Asunción. Representatives from government, academia, international organisations, civil society, and the media explored the role of public policy in tackling the issue, alongside the economic, social, and cultural factors contributing to the falling birth rates. What are these figures, and what do they signify? The Asunción Times delved into the matter.
A major decline in just two decades
As Paraguay closes out 2024 with a total fertility rate (TFR) of 2.42 births per woman, new demographic data show that the country continues to follow a pattern seen across Latin America, and much of the globe.
According to Paraguay’s Instituto Nacional de Estadística (INE) estimated and projected demographic indicators, the country’s fertility rate has dropped from 3.45 in 2001 to 2.42 in 2024. This decline of over one birth per woman in just two decades, reflects major social and economic changes in Paraguay: increased access to education, urbanisation, contraception, and evolving views on motherhood.
Recent fertility figures for Paraguay and Latin America
For 2025, the fertility rate is projected at 1.92 children per woman, clearly below the replacement level of 2.1 required to maintain a stable population size. ‘The most striking aspect today is not the decline itself, but the fact that fertility is now below replacement and expected to fall further, reaching an average of 1.72 children per woman by 2050,’ notes INE (2025).
Paraguay is not alone. Between 1995 and 2024, 63 countries and territories achieved a fertility rate of fewer than 2.1 births per woman. More than half of them are located in Latin America and the Caribbean (37 countries), or in North Africa and Western Asia (16 countries). According to the UN World Population Prospects (2024 revision):
- Chile: 1.14
- Brazil: 1.61
- Argentina: 1.50
- Mexico: 1.89
- Colombia: 1.63
This makes Latin America one of the fastest regions globally to experience a sharp decline in fertility rates.
Early childbearing remains common
However, early childbearing remains common in several countries and regions across Latin America and the Caribbean, particularly in Colombia, Mexico, Nicaragua, and the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela. In 2024, although total fertility rates in these countries fell below 2.1 births per woman, adolescent birth rates remained high, exceeding 50 births per 1,000 girls and young women aged 15 to 19. Deep-rooted cultural norms and limited access to reproductive health services help explain why teenage pregnancies persist, even as overall fertility rates decline.
Encouraging progress, however, is evident in parts of the region. Countries such as Chile, Costa Rica, Curaçao, Guadeloupe, and Puerto Rico have seen adolescent birth rates fall by more than two-thirds over the past 30 years.
A society in transformation
The drop in the fertility rate is not just a number, it is reshaping Paraguayan households. The average household size fell from over five people in 1982 to 3.4 in 2022. Meanwhile, the median age of the population rose from 19 to 29 during the same period, a clear marker of an ageing demographic.
The proportion of children (aged 0–14) shrank from 46.4% in 1950, to just 26.7% in 2022, and is projected to continue declining. Conversely, those aged 65 and over are growing steadily, from 3.8% in 1950 to a projected 16.4% by 2050.
Paraguay currently sits above the Latin American average, but projections suggest it will soon align more closely with lower-fertility-rate countries, especially as urbanisation spreads beyond Asunción.
Fertility rate decline: Crisis or natural evolution?
Paraguay’s declining fertility rate reflects positive social changes, such as greater access to education, improved reproductive autonomy, and shifting aspirations around family life. However, this demographic transition also presents economic risks. A shrinking labour force, combined with widespread low-quality employment and limited opportunities for savings, could slow development.
As the INE points out, the true danger does not lie in the falling fertility rate itself, but in the failure to address urgent priorities, such as investing in education and expanding access to decent work. Left unaddressed, these structural issues could prove more damaging in the long term than the demographic change alone.
